WEEK 1 — PROJECTION BOARD, LOW CONFIDENCE. No 2026 games have been played, so this board is built from 2025 usage and efficiency mapped onto current rosters, adjusted for the Vegas line and last season's defensive matchups (regressed hard — early-season defense numbers are mostly noise). Players on new teams are tagged NEW TEAM and shrunk toward position averages. Expect wide misses; every projection is graded into the public record either way. Confidence tightens as real 2026 data arrives. Check inactives before kickoff.